PGA Tour betting tips for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship

Golf

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, Maryland, this week.

Which gamers are the favorites this time round? Who gives good odds? And what props are worthwhile?

Betting analysts Anita Marks and sports activities betting deputy editor David Bearman supply their suggestions that will help you win this weekend.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook except in any other case famous.


Bets to win

Corey Conners

Bearman’s picks: To win (20-1); top-10 end (+250)

The Wells Fargo strikes to TPC Potomac to offer Quail Hole time to arrange for the President’s Cup. Whereas TPC Potomac has hosted a number of occasions over time, it does make course historical past rather less essential than course metrics. The arrange right here requires precision off the tee and with lengthy irons. Conners matches that invoice, coming into sixth in photographs gained off tee, thirty third in method, third in hitting greens and thirteenth tee-to-green. Conners has not performed this explicit course (it hosted in 2017-18) however is available in off a T-6 on the Masters and T-12 at Hilton Head, after a third place end in match play and T-11/T-26 on the Arnold Palmer and the Gamers. He is been very constant over the previous two months and will get a course that matches his sport to a tee. Rory McIlroy (8-1) is the one participant with odds sub 20-1, however these are solely justified if this was performed at Quail Hole. Since it isn’t, I would reasonably have the 20-1 worth with Conners.

Russell Henley

Bearman’s picks: To win (35-1); top-20 end (+175)

As famous above, the TPC Potomac is a shot-makers course that calls for precision over size. Henley leads your entire Tour in Pictures Gained method, gaining greater than a shot on the sphere. He is ninth in hitting greens and twenty sixth in driving accuracy, sixth tee-to-green and ninth total. Whereas his weak spot is driving distance, the setup right here eliminates that concern. His current outcomes will not overwhelm you (no top-10 finishes since a runner-up in Hawaii), however he has performed this course earlier than and his robust method play ought to maintain him in competition all week

Marks’ choose: to win (35-1)

I is likely to be overthinking this, however climate circumstances are going to be horrible beginning Friday afternoon into Saturday morning — rain, wind at 30 mph, temps within the 50s. Subsequently, I am on the lookout for golfer that tee off on Thursday afternoon/Friday morning — to keep away from the slop! Henley is a kind of, who can be first in SG method and sixth in SG T2G this season; two metrics which might be most essential at TPC Potomac.

Marc Leishman

Bearman’s picks: To win (40-1); top-20 end (+200)

Whereas I’m not measuring course historical past as a lot as I normally do for the yearly PGA Tour stops, you possibly can’t fully ignore it. Leishman went T-5 in 2017 and T-13 in 2018 and was one of many three gamers (Sung Kang, Rickie Fowler being different two) with two top-15 finishes at TPC Potomac. The climate could get a little bit dicey with increased winds over the weekend, which performs proper into Leishman’s benefit.

Props

Rory McIlroy

Bearman’s choose: Prime-10 end (-105)

If the Wells Fargo had returned to Quail Hole this yr, McIlroy would’ve been my first, second and third choose to win this week. Even with an 18-month profitable drought, he circled and gained this occasion there final yr, persevering with an absurd run that has seen him win the occasions and end within the high 10 in eight of 10 appearances. McIlroy’s sport is in fine condition to win once more, recent off his remaining spherical 64 on the Masters three weeks in the past. Nevertheless, with this being a distinct course this yr and McIlroy having the quick 8-1 odds to win, there may be not a ton of worth. Positive, you possibly can have mentioned that final week with the 4-1 Rahm worth, however hardly ever does that occur. May he win one other Wells Fargo title? For certain, however this can be a completely different course (one he has by no means performed), so I’m going to go along with the even cash worth of -110 for him to be one of many high 10 in a reasonably weak area.

Keegan Bradley

Bearman’s choose: Prime-10 end (+380)

Bradley enters this week’s course twenty ninth in SG off-the-tee, tenth tee-to-green and twenty fourth on method. His low fairway hit proportion are hassle with the flat stick are scaring me off of choosing him to win on the 35-1 worth. However I believe we are able to get to the top-10 together with his robust iron play. Bradley has been stable the previous few weeks, with a T-4 end at Zurich and T-8 end on the Valero occasion. Take into account he completed fifth at TPC Sawgrass, one other course the place it’s essential be good together with your irons. The occasion at TPC Potomac has been gained by golfers that do not putt significantly properly, so he needs to be within the combine. At near 4-1, I am hoping he’ll seize a top-10 spot.

Marks’ choose: Prime-10 end (+380)

Bradley is rested and able to go. He loves taking part in within the wind and rain. Bradley has two top-10 finishes this season, is lengthy and correct off the tee and is among the greatest ball strikers on tour, which shall be wanted in these circumstances.

Tony Finau

Marks’ choose: Prime-20 end (+120)

Tony is available in after capturing a 63 final Sunday in Mexico and ending second. He’s lengthy off the tee and excels on bent grass. Finau ought to do properly in these circumstances.

Brian Harman

Marks’ choose: Prime-20 end (+200)

Harman has truly gained a Wells Fargo tourney, however not on this observe. He retains his ball within the fairway and thrives in horrible climate circumstances. His Friday morning tee time ought to profit him.

Gary Woodland

Marks’ choose: Prime-20 end (+190)

Woodland, outdoors of the Masters — the place he by no means performs properly — is having a terrific season. He’s sporting two high 5s in Florida, completed eighth on the Valspar and ranks within the high 13 in SG T2G.

Matchups

Russell Henley

Bearman’s choose: Tourney matchup (-130) over Paul Casey

I gave all the explanations above why I believe Henley has a great probability to win this week. As for Casey, the previous two occasions we heard his title, he was pulling out of occasions, first the unlucky WD after taking part in two holes within the match play after which pulling out proper earlier than the Masters began. He has the sport to contend right here, however he would possibly simply be frightened about ending 18 holes at a time. Benefit, Henley.

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