How the Conn Smythe Trophy will be won

NHL

Have we ever mentioned how the Conn Smythe Trophy is likely to be the NHL’s weirdest award?

Let’s begin with the {hardware} itself. In 1964, the trophy was donated to the NHL by Maple Leaf Gardens, to be awarded to the Stanley Cup playoffs MVP and as a bauble to honor Hockey Corridor of Fame-inducted builder Conn Smythe. For all of the kvetching about Toronto’s place because the “Centre of the Hockey Universe,” the playoff MVP award (A) honors a former Maple Leafs proprietor and (B) is a scaled recreation of Maple Leaf Gardens and (C) options “a big silver botanically correct maple leaf.”

How did so many Montreal Canadiens gamers contact this factor with out their pores and skin effervescent, like a vampire touching a cross?

It is one of the vital awards within the NHL, and but additionally its most overshadowed. It is handed out moments earlier than the Stanley Cup begins its parade concerning the ice within the champions’ arms. For the Conn Smythe winner’s teammates, it is like having an opportunity to comprehend a childhood dream solely to have it delayed so everybody can hear who was named class valedictorian. For the Conn Smythe winner, profitable the MVP with the Stanley Cup inches away is lots like studying you’ve got received a brand new washer/dryer as they’re handing you that enormous Powerball examine.

The Conn Smythe is voted on by a gaggle of 18 members of the Skilled Hockey Writers’ Affiliation, a mixture of nationwide and native writers. Their votes turned public in 2017, giving sunshine to a beforehand clandestine course of so we might all see how many votes Tuukka Rask obtained in a dropping effort throughout the 2019 Stanley Cup Ultimate.

The Conn boasts one of the eclectic assortments of winners for any NHL award. It may be superstar-centric. Typically that is warranted, like when Patrick Roy and Wayne Gretzky received the award a number of occasions. Typically the winner seems like a reputation-based default setting, like when Sidney Crosby received the Conn Smythe that Phil Kessel deserved in 2016. It will also be the one main award that some gamers win of their careers, like goalie Bill Ranford (1989), middle Henrik Zetterberg (2008) and winger Justin Williams (2014), who by no means obtained a single vote for the Hart or Selke trophies.

Identify one other award the place each Mario and Claude Lemieux might win it, and but it makes complete sense.

I will wait.

But the randomness of the Conn Smythe is not random in any respect. For those who check out the previous 25 Conn Smythe winners, you discover just a few attention-grabbing patterns. Right here is the method for figuring out a Conn Smythe winner.

1. Any place can win. My friend Sean McIndoe of The Athletic famous in 2020 that the Conn Smythe Trophy would not have the identical positional bias because the Hart Trophy does for regular-season MVP. In accordance with his findings, facilities win the Hart Trophy 51% of the time and the Conn Smythe 31% of the time. Conversely, goalies win the Hart 9% of the time and the Conn Smythe 30% of the time.

His principle, and it is a good one: Whereas voters assume that defensemen and goalies will get their cake with the Norris and Vezina within the common season, there are not any positional participant awards like that within the playoffs.

2. Conn Smythe winners should play over 20 minutes per recreation. There have been 18 skaters for the reason that 1996 Stanley Cup playoffs who’ve received the Conn Smythe. Solely three of them — Crosby (2017), Williams (2014) and Joe Nieuwendyk (1999) — performed lower than 20 minutes per recreation on common. (There wasn’t time-on-ice monitoring for Joe Sakic in 1995-96, however given his numbers within the playoffs in subsequent years, we will assume he was over 20 minutes.)

It will get much more particular for defensemen: All 5 defensemen who’ve received the Conn Smythe since 1996 have averaged over 25 minutes per recreation within the playoffs.

3. Main the playoffs in scoring would not matter. Probably the most attention-grabbing pattern discovered inside these 18 skaters who received the Conn was that they weren’t probably the most dominant gamers within the postseason scoring races. Solely 4 skaters who received playoff MVP additionally led the postseason in objectives. It is really occurred solely as soon as since 2009, when Alex Ovechkin received it with the Washington Capitals in 2018.

It is the identical story for factors: The postseason chief in scoring was the postseason MVP 5 occasions. By the best way: It hasn’t occurred within the NHL since Evgeni Malkin received in 2009. This would possibly really be some shared DNA with the Hart Trophy — intrinsic worth and subjective influence are thought-about extra necessary than level compilation. To that finish …

4. Being within the high two in workforce scoring does matter. Of the 18 skaters who received the Conn Smythe for the reason that 1996 playoffs, 14 of them had been first or second on the workforce in factors. The outliers had been all defensemen: Victor Hedman (third on his workforce, 2020), Scott Niedermayer (eighth, 2007), Nicklas Lidstrom (fourth, 2002) and Scott Stevens (fourth, 2000). The final ahead to win the Conn Smythe and never end first or second in factors: Claude Lemieux, who was fourth on the Devils in 1995.

5. Sport-winning objectives are a should. The “GWG” could be a specious stat. For instance, Andrew Cogliano had the game-winning aim within the Colorado Avalanche‘s 7-2 Sport 1 win over the Nashville Predators, for making it a 3-0 recreation at 8:30 of the primary interval. That stated, 16 of the previous 18 skaters to win the Conn Smythe had a number of game-winning objectives within the playoffs. However solely 10 of them had game-winners in time beyond regulation.

6. Goalies need to be among the many playoffs’ stats leaders for MVP honors. Seven goalies have received the Conn Smythe since 1996. 5 of them led the playoffs in save proportion. All seven completed within the high two in goals-against common. Six of the seven had been first or second in shutouts. 5 of the goalies led the playoffs in each save proportion and goals-against common.

Solely two goalies who received the Conn had been under third in any of these classes: Cam Ward in 2006 and Mike Vernon in 1997, each fourth in save proportion.

I feel these patterns are comprehensible. If a workforce succeeds within the postseason, it most definitely has the perfect playoff performers on the roster; and if a workforce performs deep into the postseason, these gamers will amass spectacular stats. However these patterns additionally confer some predictability and rigidity to the Conn Smythe.

If I had been to make two modifications to the best way the award is handed out, they’d be:

Give the Stanley Cup runner-up the Conn extra usually. The Conn Smythe has been given to a participant outdoors of the Stanley Cup champion solely 5 occasions, and never since Jean-Sebastien Giguere received it with Anaheim approach again in 2003. He was one among 4 goalies to win the award in a dropping effort. I nonetheless assume Chris Pronger ought to have received playoff MVP in 2006 with the Edmonton Oilers, with 21 factors in 24 video games and enjoying 30:57 per recreation in a dropping effort. There are far more “one man dragging his workforce to the Ultimate” kind gamers on runners-up. Reward them.

To that finish …

Give the Conn Smythe to somebody outdoors the Ultimate. The NFL has the Tremendous Bowl MVP. Main League Baseball has the World Collection MVP. Main League Soccer has the MLS Cup MVP. The NBA has the Invoice Russell NBA Finals Most Invaluable Participant Award.

Detect a sample?

The NHL’s postseason MVP Award is handed out for a participant’s efficiency via the entirety of the playoffs. It is given to probably the most worthwhile participant to his workforce within the postseason. How that routinely meant solely gamers within the Stanley Cup Ultimate had been eligible was at all times a bit baffling to me. Why not somebody who fell simply quick?

My favourite instance of this chance was in 2003, when Giguere received it for the Geese. Marian Gaborik of the Minnesota Wild performed 18 video games earlier than his workforce bowed out to the Geese in 4 video games within the convention finals. He had 17 factors and 9 objectives, by far the perfect efficiency of anybody on the workforce. Ought to he have gotten MVP consideration?

I am not saying to present it to a participant after one spherical. I feel it is cheap to ask that the playoff MVP no less than have performed within the convention finals.

That stated, I would prefer to see a Venn diagram of the individuals who assume the Hart Trophy ought to go to a participant on a non-playoff workforce and the individuals who assume it is ridiculous to present the Conn Smythe to somebody outdoors of the Stanley Cup Ultimate. I am positive it is two good circles.

In just below two months, we’ll have our subsequent Conn Smythe Trophy winner. Possibly it is one other king-making second for Auston Matthews if the Maple Leafs make historical past. Possibly it is Cale Makar, changing into the eleventh defenseman in NHL historical past to win MVP honors if the Colorado Avalanche win the Cup. Possibly it is Jacob Markstrom main the NHL in save proportion because the Calgary Flames deliver Lord Stanley again to Canada.

Based mostly on the mathematics, we all know who it could possibly be. We’ll debate who it must be. After which we’ll watch as they’ve their perfunctory award assortment earlier than hoisting the MVT (most dear trophy).

You understand, the one you possibly can drink out of. Not the one with the “massive silver botanically correct maple leaf” on it.

Jersey Foul of the week

From Sin Metropolis comes this heresy:

On the one hand, that is as clear a Foul as one will pay to be stitched on one’s sweater. I do not care if that is your favourite participant ever. I do not care if you happen to’re a lapsed Boston Bruins fan who now roots for the Vegas Golden Knights.
There is just one quantity on the market that followers are allowed to misappropriate for any sweater — and regardless of what “finest participant of all time” truthers will inform you, it is No. 99, and never No. 4.

Alternatively, it is fully doable that Vegas proprietor Invoice Foley’s subsequent antithetical and bonkers desperation transfer to try to win the Stanley Cup is to signal Bobby Orr.


Video of the week

A couple of weeks in the past, I admitted that I discovered the Colorado Avalanche bland.

By that I meant that they lack the cleaning soap operatic components, attention-snagging personalities and struggles for fulfillment of different groups. They remind me of the late-aughts Detroit Red Wings: extremely proficient, extraordinarily proficient, however a workforce whose success is assumed till it is not, and solely then do they turn into compelling.

They’re vanilla ice cream: Dependably scrumptious, however might use just a few extra drizzles and nuts, you understand?

This admission led to Avalanche followers tweeting “so bland!” and “bland sufficient for you?!” at any time when Colorado scores a bunch of objectives and wins a recreation, which is steadily. They even made a meme about it, which I’ve to confess is aesthetically pleasing. Actually, it is an honor.

A part of the “bland” factor: The Avalanche being so good as to be uninteresting, within the easy approach they dispatch groups. Watching Colorado rating 5 objectives within the first interval towards Nashville’s backup goalie was undoubtedly thrilling for the locals, nevertheless it turned a Stanley Cup playoff recreation into 40 minutes of rubbish time. It is like watching the Canadian ladies’s Olympic hockey workforce put up an 11-1 victory towards Finland — like, congrats, however this is not compelling me to remain engaged for a full recreation.

Anyway, listed here are Cale Makar and Gabriel Landeskog in a Pepsi commercial that does not actually do something to undermine my level. Though Gabe’s “you appear to be a child” admittedly earned a smile.


Winners and losers of the week

Winner: Spicy pork and broccoli

As Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Louis Domingue advised our Emily Kaplan, he scarfed down some spicy pork and broccoli between the primary and second overtimes of Sport 1, anticipating to be a spectator throughout the remainder of time beyond regulation … till he was inserted into the sport for the injured Casey DeSmith. He stopped 17 pictures and the Penguins received in triple time beyond regulation. We think about spicy pork and broccoli is now popping up on native Pittsburgh menus. With French fries on high of it, after all.

Loser: Spicy selections

I perceive the logic in not suspending Minnesota Wild captain Jared Spurgeon for his intentional cross-check to the ankle of St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich in Sport 1 of their sequence Monday night time. The Division of Participant Security usually doesn’t hand out suspensions for stick fouls that do not end in an harm — simply fines. (Buchnevich performed on the following shift.) Spurgeon is crystal clear participant who will find yourself on many Woman Byng ballots this season, who simply snapped in a blow-out loss. He is not a repeat offender they need to try to reform.

That stated, I’ve at all times felt Participant Security has a blind spot for intent. There’s nothing about this play that wasn’t about an try and injure, in my view. It was petty and reckless. Regardless of the precedent, and the shortage of harm, I would have given Spurgeon a recreation. I’m wondering if he would have gotten one within the common season?

Winner: Jim Rutherford

Most press conferences by workforce executives are like pep rallies. They make some declarations that issues will likely be totally different, lay out a imprecise plan, and everybody feels good about themselves till it would not quantity to something.

Jim Rutherford’s presser in Vancouver this week was … not that. He laid out a imaginative and prescient for the longer term and for the franchise, from upgrading their services to bringing again prospect tournaments. He exuded the arrogance of somebody with a heavy hand of Stanley Cup rings, giving this franchise the path and goal that it has lacked for years. Even when that meant rattling some cages …

Loser: Bruce Boudreau

Look, Bruce Boudreau is a winner, on the ice and within the standings. If his scenario with the Canucks would not work out, there are going to be groups more than pleased to place him behind their benches — his outdated pal Chuck Fletcher in Philadelphia, maybe.

However to have Rutherford say, within the face of hypothesis a couple of contract extension, that they’d have Boudreau again on the contract they agreed to in all probability stung. To have Rutherford puncture the completely happy emotions of the Canucks’ run below Boudreau with criticism about zone exits is probably going correct however a bit myopic. There’s sturdy “Barry Trotz vs. Capitals” power right here — however then Rutherford did not rent Boudreau, did he?

Winner: Hurricanes

Typically, regular-season developments find yourself predicting postseason outcomes. And it seems that the Carolina Hurricanes‘ utter domination of the Boston Bruins was a pattern a few of us ought to have taken extra to coronary heart earlier than these playoff predictions had been due. (Stares into mirror, weeps.) The Hurricanes are a wagon, and it is nice to see.

Loser: Rats

To the fan that threw the rubber rat on the ice after the Florida Panthers had been embarrassed on dwelling ice in Sport 1 by the Washington Capitals: That is not how this works. That is not how any of this works.


Puck headlines

From your mates at ESPN

Our show “The Drop” was a wild one this week. Discover me one other NHL pregame present with Chris Chelios, yours actually dressed as Chewbacca, Olivia Rodrigo and a mini-Zamboni selecting the Stanley Cup champion via mini-bowling?

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